The Bakken Formation
    Discovered over 50 years ago, the Bakken deposit--once impossible to extract--
    is now being hailed as the single largest oil find in US history.



    The Bakken formation in North Dakota and
    Montana has generated a lot of buzz in the past
    year. Reserve numbers in the billions of barrels,
    even tens or hundreds of billions show up in press
    reports and blogs. Now the USGS has weighed in
    with a comprehensive assessment of the
    resource. So just how much will this oil
    accumulation help the world's largest importer of
    oil? Is it time to relax or is this just another small
    blip in the long-term decline of domestic
    production?

    The reported 3.65 billion barrels of oil mean
    estimate is for 'undiscovered' oil only, and doesn't
    include known oil, such as reserves. In fact, the
    study reports a 25-fold increase in the amount of
    oil that can be recovered... compared to the
    agency's estimate back in 1995.

Discovered over 50 years ago, the Bakken deposit--once impossible to extract--is now being hailed as the single largest oil find in US
history. That's because, today, thanks to breakthrough drilling techniques like horizontal drilling, the Bakken's oil shales can be extracted
relatively cheaply.  

What's next for the Bakken?

Bakken production is trending upward and should continue for some time. The October 2007 production of 75,000 BOPD equates to 27
million barrels per year, a substantial amount by most measures for the US onshore sector. This only amounts to about 0.4% of US
consumption (using a base of 20,700 BOBP, based on EIA data), or 0.6% of US imports.

Drilling activity in the Bakken continues at a frenetic pace. It's difficult to predict how long the upward trend in production will continue. Over
the long term, economics will play a significant role in determining how much production will be expanded.

Conclusions

    1. The Bakken shale has produced about 111 million barrels of oil during the last 50+ years in Montana and North Dakota.

    2. Total Bakken production is still rising, and producing at the rate of 75,000 BOPD in October 2007.

    3. Because of the highly variable nature of shale reservoirs, the characteristics of the historical Bakken production, and the fact that
    per-well rates seem to have peaked, it seems unlikely that total Bakken production will exceed 2x to 3x current rate of 75,000 BOPD.

    4. The latest boom in Bakken production is driven by the application of horizontal wells and hydraulic fracturing technology, which
    has added about 70 million barrels of production in 7 years. Ultimate recovery of the already-drilled wells should be at least double
    this volume.

    5. The USGS estimates the mean volume of technically recoverable hydrocarbons to be 3,649 million barrels of oil. This is roughly 7
    to 12 times the size of already known resources.

    6. Based on current production and areas likely to be drilled, the USGS estimate of technically recovery resources seems optimistic.

    7. The Bakken potential resource, while large by US onshore field standards, will have only a minor effect on US production or
    imports. Using 2006 US imports and consumption for comparison, the Bakken undiscovered resource of 3,649 million barrels of
    oil, if subsequently discovered and fully developed, would provide us with the equivalent of six months of oil consumption or 10
    months of imports, spread over 20 or more years. In reality, the reserves developed are likely to be many times smaller than this
    value.

    8. The October 2007 production rate of 75,000 BOPD amounts only 0.4% of US oil consumption, or 0.6% of imports.

    9. Per-well Bakken production peaked in August 2005 at 116 barrels a day, and was down to 79 barrels a day in October 2007. If the
    Bakken production history in the 1990s can be used as a guide, the peaking of per-well production may portend a peak in total
    Bakken production.
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Questions contact dennisk@nemont.net
The whole jest of this "new" formation is what is happening in Sheridan County!! Are there Madison
Bakken wells?

J. Cron
tooti62@yahoo.com